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Lead Expected Value Calculator

Combine an assumed close rate with customer contribution and a handling cost paid for every lead.

39 / VALUE THE LEAD

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Starting values are illustrative. Use your own costs, rates and assumptions.

INPUT GROUP 01

One defined customer horizon

Check the assumptions before acting on a result.

Read the method and example

YOUR CALCULATION

Value a lead using an entered close probability and customer contribution.

Contribution per closed customer

$400.00

Expected contribution per lead

$80.00

Expected value after lead handling

$70.00

Expected closed customers

20

Expected value of entered leads

$7,000.00

Keep the calculation

Saving is optional and stays on this device. Unsaved edits are not kept when you leave. CSV includes every input and the current results.

Illustrative inputs loaded. Replace them with your own assumptions.

How the lead expected value calculator works

Customer contribution is revenue less variable delivery cost over the same stated customer horizon. Multiply by close probability to estimate contribution per lead, then deduct qualification cost paid for each lead regardless of outcome.

Multiply net expected value per lead by the number of leads for the group estimate. Expected closed customers can be fractional. Negative customer contribution or a negative lead value remains visible instead of being silently set to zero.

This is a probability-weighted scenario, not a guarantee or a lifetime forecast. Acquisition spending is excluded, so the net value is an allowance available before that spend and other omitted costs. Keep qualification costs separate from delivery costs to avoid double counting.

Worked example

A 20% close rate applied to $1,000 customer revenue less $600 variable cost gives $80 expected contribution per lead. After $10 qualification cost, expected net value is $70 per lead. For 100 leads, that is 20 expected customers and $7,000 expected value before acquisition spending.

Sources and assumptions

The source material explains the underlying calculation or pricing structure. Entered prices, costs, schedules and scenario choices are your assumptions; this tool does not obtain supplier quotes or predict actual results.

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